|
|
 From the Chrystal Ball series:
The Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology released today a study that outlines how the country and the planet will (probably) evolve in the next 20 years. Produced by the Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos, the document offers a time line based on several sources. It is meant to help government plan its future strategies.
Part of its content is easily predictable, considering recent tendencies. But there are some surprises.
Among its main forecasts:
Economy
- In four years, Brazil will go back to its tradition of successive commercial balance deficits
- Brazilian Gross Domestic Product will be 925 billion dollars in 2015 (which means, less than our present GDP, around 1.6 trillion dollars. It is not very clear how Goldman Sachs, the original source of this information, came up with this number)
- Brazil, the brand, will increase its value. The demand for products associated to the country’s cultural diversity will grow
Keep reading
 It happens every single summer, in many cities of South-Southeast Brazil. The rain season literally destroys whole communities, namely those installed on river margins or on steep slopes. Those who cannot afford to move to less risky areas.
Once I interviewed this lady who lived by the Tamanduateí, in São Paulo, a river whose margins are paved in such a way that the overflow has nowhere to go but into people’s lives. She described how her husband carried her into the house when they got married – not because he was romantic, but because the first floor was flooded. Then she showed me how she managed to survive under water – she installed several platforms to keep the phone and the TV out of reach and a pulley to lift the furniture whenever it rained strong.
Two huge tragedies in the last few weeks showed that even very touristic cities are not at bay. In Angra dos Reis, the resort in the state of Rio known for its hundreds of islands and yacht clubs, a landslide destroyed an upscale pousada (a small resort) and killed at least 30 people. In São Luiz do Paraitinga, a cute little town in the state of São Paulo, known for its traditional music and cachaça (sugar cane alcoholic beverage), at least 50 buildings in the historic part of the city may fall. The two main churches, the city hall, the archives, the library – all of them were destroyed.
These episodes aren’t accidental. Every year, specialists come up with explanations that combine the following causes:
- Expansion of housing projects and shanty towns into areas that are regularly flooded (cheap and available land). Local governments seem to have little power to refrain these settlements and sometimes even stimulate them, emitting building permits where no one should ever build.
- Deforestation of river margins and slopes. Once there are no roots holding the mud, it slides to the bottom of the waterways, reducing their capacity of absorbing the water.
- Making the soil impermeable by cementing every inch of free land. Once the water hits the cement, it has nowhere to go, but into the buildings. By the way, this is a huge cultural problem: everywhere you go in Brazil, poor or rich neighborhoods, you will notice homeowners choose to cement their yards and driveways, removing all the vegetation.
- Bad planning and miscalculations of hydro power dams. These constructions frequently change the course of rivers and remove lots of vegetation, unbalancing the water cycle.
- Climate change, that makes the weather unpredictable and generates more storms in regions where they were not so frequent.
All these causes don’t seem to get any better, year after year. Next Summer, Brazilians will be enjoying the beach – except for those that will be mourning their deads and their losses.
Bookmark this on Delicious
 Storm over São Paulo/Fabiano (LycoSp)/Flickr Brazil will lose between US$ 417 billion (in an optimist scenario) and US$ 2 trillion of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year by 2050 thanks to global warming. This means, in the worst scenario, the GDP might be reduced in 2.3% by the middle of the century. This is one of the scary conclusions of a report just released by several Brazilian universities and the main specialists in climate and agriculture of the country. They worked for two years in a document that evaluates the possible impacts of the raising temperatures and climate instability. “It is like wasting a whole year of growth during the next 40 years”, says the study.
Among their main conclusions:
- The temperature may rise 8°C (46.4°F) by 2100 in the Amazon region and it may undergo a radical transformation, becoming more like a savanna. The south, the southeast and the east parts of the basin might lose 40% of their forests.
- The Northeast of the country (including the states of Bahia and Pernambuco) are also very vulnerable. Agriculture and cattle farming will have important losses because of the lack of rains in a region that is already very arid.
- The hydro power dams – main responsible for the generation of electricity in the country – will be less reliable.
- Agriculture shouldn’t have major problems in the southern states (including São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul).
- Soy, corn and coffee production will have to reduce their cultivated areas (34%, 15% and 18%, respectively), while sugar cane plantations will not decline.
- When the level of the oceans elevates and the weather gets more violent, the losses along the Brazilian coast should range from US$ 79 billion to US$ 120 billion.
The study stresses that the poorest regions of the country should be the most affected.It also lists a series of measures that could minimize those risks. Among them, incentives to alternative energies and carbon markets; investments in genetically improved plants, adapted to the growing droughts, and in improved irrigation techniques; and coastal management.
Besides the dark conclusions, the study is surprising because of the quality of the organizations involved. From Universidade de São Paulo and Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) to the World Bank and a few non-profits, such as the brilliant Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (Inpa). It is the final proof that climate change and the environmental matters really are attracting the attention they deserve.
|
|
